#include "ctrparam.h" ! ========================================================== ! ! TRENDS.F: This file contains subroitines a, b, & ctrend ! in the old MD2G04.f. ! ! ---------------------------------------------------------- ! ! Revision History: ! ! When Who What ! ---- ---------- ------- ! 073100 Chien Wang repack based on CliChem3 & M24x11, ! and add cpp. ! ! ========================================================== SUBROUTINE ATREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9139.1 C 9139.2 C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9139.3 C T-GAS SCENARIO A: PRESENT TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9139.4 C (EXPONENTIAL FORCING PROJECTED BEYOND 2000) 9139.5 C 9139.6 C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9139.7 C 0.015/YR RATE OF INCREASE 9139.8 C ON 1.5 PPM INCREMENT BEYOND 1984 9139.9 C 9140. C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1978, 9140.1 C 0.035/YR INCREASE 9140.2 C ON 1978 INCREMENT BEYOND 1978 9140.3 C 9140.4 C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9140.5 C 0.015/YR INCREASE BEYOND 1980 9140.6 C 9140.7 C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9140.8 C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE BEYOND 1984, 9140.9 C DOUBLED FORCING TO ACCOUNT FOR OTHER CFCS 9141. C SLOW 75YR, 150YR DECAY RATE BEYOND 2000 9141.1 C 9141.2 C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9141.3 C 9141.4 DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9141.5 DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9141.6 DATA XXF11/ 9141.7 10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9141.8 20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9141.9 30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9142. 40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9142.1 50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9142.2 60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9142.3 DATA XXF12/ 9142.4 10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9142.5 20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9142.6 30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9142.7 40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9142.8 50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9142.9 60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9143. DATA XXCO2/ 9143.1 1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9143.2 2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9143.3 3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9143.4 4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9143.5 C 9143.6 DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9143.7 GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9143.8 C 9143.9 C CO2 SCENARIOS 9144. C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9144.1 100 CONTINUE 9144.2 IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9144.3 DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9144.4 XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9144.5 GO TO 120 9144.6 110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9144.7 I=YEAR 9144.8 DELTA=YEAR-I 9144.9 I=I-1957 9145. XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9145.1 GO TO 120 9145.2 115 DT=YEAR-1984.0 9145.3 XX0=343.81 9145.4 ETA=1.50 9145.5 XMU=0.015 9145.6 XX=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9145.7 120 CONTINUE 9145.8 GO TO 8000 9145.9 C 9146. C N2O SCENARIOS 9146.1 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9146.2 200 XSS=282.0 9146.3 TAU=150.0 9146.4 BNA=16.7 9146.5 IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9146.6 X0=285.355 9146.7 XMU=0.04 9146.8 T0=1912.0 9146.9 XJ0=11.0*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9147. GO TO 219 9147.1 205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9147.2 X0=289.96 9147.3 XMU=0.01 9147.4 T0=1945.0 9147.5 XJ0=11.0*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9147.6 GO TO 219 9147.7 210 IF(YEAR.GT.1978.0) GO TO 215 9147.8 X0=300.2 9147.9 XMU=0.035 9148. T0=1978.0 9148.1 XJ0=11.0 9148.2 GO TO 219 9148.3 215 CONTINUE 9148.4 X0=300.2 9148.5 XMU=0.035 9148.6 T0=1978.0 9148.7 XJ0=11.0 9148.8 219 DT=YEAR-T0 9148.9 XX=XSS+(X0-XSS)*EXP(-DT/TAU) 9149. + +XJ0*TAU/BNA/(1.0+XMU*TAU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT/TAU)) 9149.1 220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9149.2 GO TO 8000 9149.3 C 9149.4 C CH4 SCENARIOS 9149.5 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9149.6 300 CONTINUE 9149.7 IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9149.8 DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/108.0 9149.9 XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9150. GO TO 320 9150.1 305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9150.2 DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9150.3 XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9150.4 GO TO 320 9150.5 310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9150.6 DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9150.7 XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9150.8 GO TO 320 9150.9 315 DT=YEAR-1980.0 9151. XX=1.65*1.015**DT 9151.1 320 CONTINUE 9151.2 GO TO 8000 9151.3 C 9151.4 C F11 SCENARIOS 9151.5 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9151.6 400 CONTINUE 9151.7 IF(YEAR.LT.1985.0) GO TO 410 9151.8 UAT=1.0/75.0 9151.9 XMU=0.03 9152. XX0=XXF11(45) 9152.1 ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9152.2 DT=YEAR-1985.0 9152.3 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9152.4 GO TO 420 9152.5 410 XX=0.0 9152.6 IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9152.7 I=YEAR 9152.8 DELTA=YEAR-I 9152.9 I=I-1940 9153. XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9153.1 420 XX=XX*2.0 9153.2 GO TO 8000 9153.3 C 9153.4 C F12 SCENARIOS 9153.5 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9153.6 500 CONTINUE 9153.7 IF(YEAR.LT.1985.0) GO TO 510 9153.8 UAT=1.0/150.0 9153.9 XMU=0.03 9154. XX0=XXF12(45) 9154.1 ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9154.2 DT=YEAR-1985.0 9154.3 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9154.4 GO TO 520 9154.5 510 XX=0.0 9154.6 IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9154.7 I=YEAR 9154.8 DELTA=YEAR-I 9154.9 I=I-1940 9155. XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9155.1 520 XX=XX*2.0 9155.2 GO TO 8000 9155.3 C 9155.4 8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9155.5 9000 CONTINUE 9155.6 RETURN 9155.7 END 9155.8 SUBROUTINE BTREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9155.9 C 9156. C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9156.1 C T-GAS SCENARIO B: REDUCED TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9156.2 C (REDUCED FORCING BEYOND 2000) 9156.3 C 9156.4 C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9156.5 C 0.015/YR INCREASE IN 1.5 PPM INCREMENT 9156.6 C THRU 1990, 0.010/YR THRU 2000, 0.005/YR 9156.7 C 2010, CONSTANT INCREMENT BEYOND 2010 9156.8 C 9156.9 C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1978, 0.035/YR INCREASE 9157. C IN 1978 INCREMENT THRU 1990, 0.025/YR 9157.1 C THRU 2000, 0.015/YR THRU 2010, 0.005/YR 9157.2 C INCREASE IN INCREMENT BEYOND 2010 9157.3 C 9157.4 C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9157.5 C 0.015/YR INCREASE THRU 1990, 0.010/YR 9157.6 C INCREASE THRU 2000, 0.005/YR BEYOND 2000 9157.7 C 9157.8 C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9157.9 C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 1990, 9158. C 0.02 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 2000, 9158.1 C 0.01 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 2010, 9158.2 C CONSTANT EMISSION RATE BEYOND 2010 9158.3 C 9158.4 C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9158.5 C 9158.6 DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9158.7 DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9158.8 DATA XXF11/ 9158.9 10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9159. 20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9159.1 30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9159.2 40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9159.3 50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9159.4 60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9159.5 DATA XXF12/ 9159.6 10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9159.7 20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9159.8 30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9159.9 40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9160. 50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9160.1 60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9160.2 DATA XXCO2/ 9160.3 1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9160.4 2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9160.5 3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9160.6 4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9160.7 C 9160.8 DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9160.9 GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9161. C 9161.1 C CO2 SCENARIOS 9161.2 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9161.3 100 CONTINUE 9161.4 IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9161.5 DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9161.6 XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9161.7 GO TO 120 9161.8 110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9161.9 I=YEAR 9162. DELTA=YEAR-I 9162.1 I=I-1957 9162.2 XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9162.3 GO TO 120 9162.4 115 XX0=343.81 9162.5 ETA=1.50 9162.6 XMU=0.015 9162.7 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 116 9162.8 DT=YEAR-1984.0 9162.9 GO TO 119 9163. 116 DT=1990.0-1984.0 9163.1 XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9163.2 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9163.3 XMU=0.010 9163.4 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 117 9163.5 DT=YEAR-1990.0 9163.6 GO TO 119 9163.7 117 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9163.8 XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9163.9 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9164. XMU=0.005 9164.1 IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 118 9164.2 DT=YEAR-2000.0 9164.3 GO TO 119 9164.4 118 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9164.5 XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9164.6 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9164.7 DT=YEAR-2010.0 9164.8 XX=XX0+ETA*DT 9164.9 GO TO 120 9165. 119 XX=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9165.1 120 CONTINUE 9165.2 GO TO 8000 9165.3 C 9165.4 C N2O SCENARIOS 9165.5 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9165.6 200 XSS=282.0 9165.7 UAT=1.0/150.0 9165.8 IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9165.9 XX0=285.355 9166. XMU=0.04 9166.1 T0=1912.0 9166.2 ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9166.3 GO TO 219 9166.4 205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9166.5 XX0=289.96 9166.6 XMU=0.01 9166.7 T0=1945.0 9166.8 ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9166.9 GO TO 219 9167. 210 XX0=300.2 9167.1 XMU=0.035 9167.2 T0=1978.0 9167.3 ETA=11.0/16.7 9167.4 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 215 9167.5 GO TO 219 9167.6 215 DT=1990.0-T0 9167.7 XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9167.8 + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9167.9 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9168. XMU=0.025 9168.1 T0=1990.0 9168.2 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 216 9168.3 GO TO 219 9168.4 216 DT=2000.0-T0 9168.5 XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9168.6 + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9168.7 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9168.8 XMU=0.015 9168.9 T0=2000.0 9169. IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 217 9169.1 GO TO 219 9169.2 217 DT=2010.0-T0 9169.3 XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9169.4 + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9169.5 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9169.6 XMU=0.005 9169.7 T0=2010.0 9169.8 219 DT=YEAR-T0 9169.9 XX=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9170. + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9170.1 220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9170.2 GO TO 8000 9170.3 C 9170.4 C CH4 SCENARIOS 9170.5 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9170.6 300 CONTINUE 9170.7 IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9170.8 DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9170.9 XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9171. GO TO 320 9171.1 305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9171.2 DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9171.3 XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9171.4 GO TO 320 9171.5 310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9171.6 DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9171.7 XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9171.8 GO TO 320 9171.9 315 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 316 9172. DT=YEAR-1980.0 9172.1 XX=1.65*1.015**DT 9172.2 GO TO 320 9172.3 316 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 317 9172.4 DT=YEAR-1990.0 9172.5 XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**DT 9172.6 GO TO 320 9172.7 317 IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 318 9172.8 DT=YEAR-2000.0 9172.9 XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**10.0*1.005**DT 9173. GO TO 320 9173.1 318 DT=YEAR-2010.0 9173.2 XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**10.0*1.005**10.0*1.005**DT 9173.3 320 CONTINUE 9173.4 GO TO 8000 9173.5 C 9173.6 C F11 SCENARIOS 9173.7 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9173.8 400 XX=0.0 9173.9 IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9174. IF(YEAR.GT.1985.0) GO TO 410 9174.1 I=YEAR 9174.2 DELTA=YEAR-I 9174.3 I=I-1940 9174.4 XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9174.5 GO TO 420 9174.6 410 UAT=1.0/75.0 9174.7 XMU=0.03 9174.8 XX0=XXF11(45) 9174.9 ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9175. IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 415 9175.1 DT=YEAR-1985.0 9175.2 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9175.3 GO TO 420 9175.4 415 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9175.5 XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9175.6 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9175.7 XMU=0.02 9175.8 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 416 9175.9 DT=YEAR-1990.0 9176. XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.1 GO TO 420 9176.2 416 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9176.3 XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.4 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9176.5 XMU=0.01 9176.6 IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 417 9176.7 DT=YEAR-2000.0 9176.8 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.9 GO TO 420 9177. 417 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9177.1 XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9177.2 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9177.3 XMU=0.0 9177.4 DT=YEAR-2010.0 9177.5 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9177.6 420 XX=XX*1.0 9177.7 GO TO 8000 9177.8 C 9177.9 C F12 SCENARIOS 9178. C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9178.1 500 XX=0.0 9178.2 IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9178.3 IF(YEAR.GT.1985.0) GO TO 510 9178.4 I=YEAR 9178.5 DELTA=YEAR-I 9178.6 I=I-1940 9178.7 XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9178.8 GO TO 520 9178.9 510 UAT=1.0/150.0 9179. XMU=0.03 9179.1 XX0=XXF12(45) 9179.2 ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9179.3 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 515 9179.4 DT=YEAR-1985.0 9179.5 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9179.6 GO TO 520 9179.7 515 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9179.8 XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9179.9 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9180. XMU=0.02 9180.1 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 516 9180.2 DT=YEAR-1990.0 9180.3 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9180.4 GO TO 520 9180.5 516 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9180.6 XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9180.7 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9180.8 XMU=0.01 9180.9 IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 517 9181. DT=YEAR-2000.0 9181.1 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.2 GO TO 520 9181.3 517 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9181.4 XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.5 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9181.6 XMU=0.0 9181.7 DT=YEAR-2010.0 9181.8 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.9 520 XX=XX*1.0 9182. GO TO 8000 9182.1 C 9182.2 8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9182.3 9000 CONTINUE 9182.4 RETURN 9182.5 END 9182.6 SUBROUTINE CTREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9182.7 C 9182.8 C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9182.9 C T-GAS SCENARIO C: CURTAILED TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9183. C (EFFECTIVE FORCING CUTOFF BEYOND 2000) 9183.1 C 9183.2 C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9183.3 C 1.5PPM FIXED INCREMENTS 1984-2000 9183.4 C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9183.5 C 9183.6 C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1984, 9183.7 C FIXED INCREMENT 1984-2000, 9183.8 C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9183.9 C 9184. C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9184.1 C 0.01 INCREMENTS TO 1990, 0.005 TO 2000 9184.2 C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9184.3 C 9184.4 C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9184.5 C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 1990, 9184.6 C EMISSIONS TO ZERO DURING 1990-2000, 9184.7 C SLOW 75YR, 150YR DECAY RATE BEYOND 2000 9184.8 C 9184.9 C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9185. C 9185.1 DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9185.2 DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9185.3 DATA XXF11/ 9185.4 10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9185.5 20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9185.6 30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9185.7 40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9185.8 50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9185.9 60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9186. DATA XXF12/ 9186.1 10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9186.2 20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9186.3 30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9186.4 40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9186.5 50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9186.6 60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9186.7 DATA XXCO2/ 9186.8 1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9186.9 2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9187. 3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9187.1 4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9187.2 C 9187.3 DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9187.4 GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9187.5 C 9187.6 C CO2 SCENARIOS 9187.7 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9187.8 100 CONTINUE 9187.9 IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9188. DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9188.1 XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9188.2 GO TO 120 9188.3 110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9188.4 I=YEAR 9188.5 DELTA=YEAR-I 9188.6 I=I-1957 9188.7 XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9188.8 GO TO 120 9188.9 115 XX0=343.81 9189. ETA=1.50 9189.1 XMU=0.0 9189.2 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 116 9189.3 DT=YEAR-1984.0 9189.4 GO TO 119 9189.5 116 DT=2000.0-1984.0 9189.6 XX0=XX0+ETA*DT 9189.7 DT=0.0 9189.8 119 XX=XX0+ETA*DT 9189.9 120 CONTINUE 9190. GO TO 8000 9190.1 C 9190.2 C N2O SCENARIOS 9190.3 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9190.4 200 XSS=282.0 9190.5 UAT=1.0/150.0 9190.6 IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9190.7 XX0=285.355 9190.8 XMU=0.04 9190.9 T0=1912.0 9191. ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9191.1 GO TO 219 9191.2 205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9191.3 XX0=289.96 9191.4 XMU=0.01 9191.5 T0=1945.0 9191.6 ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9191.7 GO TO 219 9191.8 210 XX0=300.2 9191.9 XMU=0.035 9192. T0=1978.0 9192.1 ETA=11.0/16.7 9192.2 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 215 9192.3 GO TO 219 9192.4 215 DT=1984.0-T0 9192.5 XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9192.6 + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9192.7 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9192.8 XMU=0.0 9192.9 T0=1984.0 9193. IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 216 9193.1 GO TO 219 9193.2 216 DT=2000.0-T0 9193.3 XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9193.4 + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9193.5 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9193.6 T0=YEAR 9193.7 219 DT=YEAR-T0 9193.8 XX=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9193.9 + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9194. 220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9194.1 GO TO 8000 9194.2 C 9194.3 C CH4 SCENARIOS 9194.4 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9194.5 300 CONTINUE 9194.6 IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9194.7 DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9194.8 XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9194.9 GO TO 320 9195. 305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9195.1 DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9195.2 XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9195.3 GO TO 320 9195.4 310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9195.5 DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9195.6 XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9195.7 GO TO 320 9195.8 315 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 316 9195.9 DT=YEAR-1980.0 9196. XX=1.65*1.010**DT 9196.1 GO TO 320 9196.2 316 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 317 9196.3 DT=YEAR-1990.0 9196.4 XX=1.65*1.010**10.0*1.005**DT 9196.5 GO TO 320 9196.6 317 DT=YEAR-2000.0 9196.7 XX=1.65*1.010**10.0*1.005**10.0 9196.8 320 CONTINUE 9196.9 GO TO 8000 9197. C 9197.1 C F11 SCENARIOS 9197.2 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9197.3 400 XX=0.0 9197.4 IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9197.5 IF(YEAR.GE.1985.0) GO TO 410 9197.6 I=YEAR 9197.7 DELTA=YEAR-I 9197.8 I=I-1940 9197.9 XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9198. GO TO 420 9198.1 410 UAT=1.0/75.0 9198.2 TAU=75.0 9198.3 XMU=0.03 9198.4 XX0=XXF11(45) 9198.5 ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9198.6 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 415 9198.7 DT=YEAR-1985.0 9198.8 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9198.9 GO TO 420 9199. 415 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9199.1 XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9199.2 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9199.3 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 416 9199.4 DT=YEAR-1990.0 9199.5 TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9199.6 XX=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9199.7 GO TO 420 9199.8 416 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9199.9 TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9200. XX0=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9200.1 DT=YEAR-2000.0 9200.2 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT) 9200.3 420 XX=XX*1.0 9200.4 GO TO 8000 9200.5 C 9200.6 C F12 SCENARIOS 9200.7 C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9200.8 500 XX=0.0 9200.9 IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9201. IF(YEAR.GE.1985.0) GO TO 510 9201.1 I=YEAR 9201.2 DELTA=YEAR-I 9201.3 I=I-1940 9201.4 XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9201.5 GO TO 520 9201.6 510 UAT=1.0/150.0 9201.7 TAU=150.0 9201.8 XMU=0.03 9201.9 XX0=XXF12(45) 9202. ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9202.1 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 515 9202.2 DT=YEAR-1985.0 9202.3 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9202.4 GO TO 520 9202.5 515 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9202.6 XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9202.7 ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9202.8 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 516 9202.9 DT=YEAR-1990.0 9203. TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9203.1 XX=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9203.2 GO TO 520 9203.3 516 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9203.4 TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9203.5 XX0=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9203.6 DT=YEAR-2000.0 9203.7 XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT) 9203.8 520 XX=XX*1.0 9203.9 GO TO 8000 9204. C 9204.1 8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9204.2 9000 CONTINUE 9204.3 RETURN 9204.4 END 9204.5