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#include "ctrparam.h" |
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|
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! ========================================================== |
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! |
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! TRENDS.F: This file contains subroitines a, b, & ctrend |
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! in the old MD2G04.f. |
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! |
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! ---------------------------------------------------------- |
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! |
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! Revision History: |
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! |
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! When Who What |
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! ---- ---------- ------- |
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! 073100 Chien Wang repack based on CliChem3 & M24x11, |
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! and add cpp. |
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! |
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! ========================================================== |
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|
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|
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SUBROUTINE ATREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9139.1 |
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C 9139.2 |
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C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9139.3 |
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C T-GAS SCENARIO A: PRESENT TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9139.4 |
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C (EXPONENTIAL FORCING PROJECTED BEYOND 2000) 9139.5 |
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C 9139.6 |
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C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9139.7 |
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C 0.015/YR RATE OF INCREASE 9139.8 |
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C ON 1.5 PPM INCREMENT BEYOND 1984 9139.9 |
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C 9140. |
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C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1978, 9140.1 |
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C 0.035/YR INCREASE 9140.2 |
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C ON 1978 INCREMENT BEYOND 1978 9140.3 |
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C 9140.4 |
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C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9140.5 |
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C 0.015/YR INCREASE BEYOND 1980 9140.6 |
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C 9140.7 |
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C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9140.8 |
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C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE BEYOND 1984, 9140.9 |
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C DOUBLED FORCING TO ACCOUNT FOR OTHER CFCS 9141. |
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C SLOW 75YR, 150YR DECAY RATE BEYOND 2000 9141.1 |
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C 9141.2 |
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C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9141.3 |
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C 9141.4 |
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DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9141.5 |
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DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9141.6 |
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DATA XXF11/ 9141.7 |
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10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9141.8 |
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20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9141.9 |
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30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9142. |
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40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9142.1 |
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50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9142.2 |
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60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9142.3 |
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DATA XXF12/ 9142.4 |
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10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9142.5 |
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20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9142.6 |
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30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9142.7 |
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40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9142.8 |
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50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9142.9 |
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60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9143. |
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DATA XXCO2/ 9143.1 |
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1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9143.2 |
| 63 |
2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9143.3 |
| 64 |
3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9143.4 |
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4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9143.5 |
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C 9143.6 |
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DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9143.7 |
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GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9143.8 |
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C 9143.9 |
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C CO2 SCENARIOS 9144. |
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C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9144.1 |
| 72 |
100 CONTINUE 9144.2 |
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IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9144.3 |
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DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9144.4 |
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XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9144.5 |
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GO TO 120 9144.6 |
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110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9144.7 |
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I=YEAR 9144.8 |
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DELTA=YEAR-I 9144.9 |
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I=I-1957 9145. |
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XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9145.1 |
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GO TO 120 9145.2 |
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115 DT=YEAR-1984.0 9145.3 |
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XX0=343.81 9145.4 |
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ETA=1.50 9145.5 |
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XMU=0.015 9145.6 |
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XX=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9145.7 |
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120 CONTINUE 9145.8 |
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GO TO 8000 9145.9 |
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C 9146. |
| 91 |
C N2O SCENARIOS 9146.1 |
| 92 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9146.2 |
| 93 |
200 XSS=282.0 9146.3 |
| 94 |
TAU=150.0 9146.4 |
| 95 |
BNA=16.7 9146.5 |
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IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9146.6 |
| 97 |
X0=285.355 9146.7 |
| 98 |
XMU=0.04 9146.8 |
| 99 |
T0=1912.0 9146.9 |
| 100 |
XJ0=11.0*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9147. |
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GO TO 219 9147.1 |
| 102 |
205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9147.2 |
| 103 |
X0=289.96 9147.3 |
| 104 |
XMU=0.01 9147.4 |
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T0=1945.0 9147.5 |
| 106 |
XJ0=11.0*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9147.6 |
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GO TO 219 9147.7 |
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210 IF(YEAR.GT.1978.0) GO TO 215 9147.8 |
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X0=300.2 9147.9 |
| 110 |
XMU=0.035 9148. |
| 111 |
T0=1978.0 9148.1 |
| 112 |
XJ0=11.0 9148.2 |
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GO TO 219 9148.3 |
| 114 |
215 CONTINUE 9148.4 |
| 115 |
X0=300.2 9148.5 |
| 116 |
XMU=0.035 9148.6 |
| 117 |
T0=1978.0 9148.7 |
| 118 |
XJ0=11.0 9148.8 |
| 119 |
219 DT=YEAR-T0 9148.9 |
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XX=XSS+(X0-XSS)*EXP(-DT/TAU) 9149. |
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+ +XJ0*TAU/BNA/(1.0+XMU*TAU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT/TAU)) 9149.1 |
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220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9149.2 |
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GO TO 8000 9149.3 |
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C 9149.4 |
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C CH4 SCENARIOS 9149.5 |
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C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9149.6 |
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300 CONTINUE 9149.7 |
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IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9149.8 |
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DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/108.0 9149.9 |
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XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9150. |
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GO TO 320 9150.1 |
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305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9150.2 |
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DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9150.3 |
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XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9150.4 |
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GO TO 320 9150.5 |
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310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9150.6 |
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DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9150.7 |
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XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9150.8 |
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GO TO 320 9150.9 |
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315 DT=YEAR-1980.0 9151. |
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XX=1.65*1.015**DT 9151.1 |
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320 CONTINUE 9151.2 |
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GO TO 8000 9151.3 |
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C 9151.4 |
| 145 |
C F11 SCENARIOS 9151.5 |
| 146 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9151.6 |
| 147 |
400 CONTINUE 9151.7 |
| 148 |
IF(YEAR.LT.1985.0) GO TO 410 9151.8 |
| 149 |
UAT=1.0/75.0 9151.9 |
| 150 |
XMU=0.03 9152. |
| 151 |
XX0=XXF11(45) 9152.1 |
| 152 |
ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9152.2 |
| 153 |
DT=YEAR-1985.0 9152.3 |
| 154 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9152.4 |
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GO TO 420 9152.5 |
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410 XX=0.0 9152.6 |
| 157 |
IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9152.7 |
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I=YEAR 9152.8 |
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DELTA=YEAR-I 9152.9 |
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I=I-1940 9153. |
| 161 |
XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9153.1 |
| 162 |
420 XX=XX*2.0 9153.2 |
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GO TO 8000 9153.3 |
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C 9153.4 |
| 165 |
C F12 SCENARIOS 9153.5 |
| 166 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9153.6 |
| 167 |
500 CONTINUE 9153.7 |
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IF(YEAR.LT.1985.0) GO TO 510 9153.8 |
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UAT=1.0/150.0 9153.9 |
| 170 |
XMU=0.03 9154. |
| 171 |
XX0=XXF12(45) 9154.1 |
| 172 |
ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9154.2 |
| 173 |
DT=YEAR-1985.0 9154.3 |
| 174 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9154.4 |
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GO TO 520 9154.5 |
| 176 |
510 XX=0.0 9154.6 |
| 177 |
IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9154.7 |
| 178 |
I=YEAR 9154.8 |
| 179 |
DELTA=YEAR-I 9154.9 |
| 180 |
I=I-1940 9155. |
| 181 |
XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9155.1 |
| 182 |
520 XX=XX*2.0 9155.2 |
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GO TO 8000 9155.3 |
| 184 |
C 9155.4 |
| 185 |
8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9155.5 |
| 186 |
9000 CONTINUE 9155.6 |
| 187 |
RETURN 9155.7 |
| 188 |
END 9155.8 |
| 189 |
SUBROUTINE BTREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9155.9 |
| 190 |
C 9156. |
| 191 |
C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9156.1 |
| 192 |
C T-GAS SCENARIO B: REDUCED TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9156.2 |
| 193 |
C (REDUCED FORCING BEYOND 2000) 9156.3 |
| 194 |
C 9156.4 |
| 195 |
C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9156.5 |
| 196 |
C 0.015/YR INCREASE IN 1.5 PPM INCREMENT 9156.6 |
| 197 |
C THRU 1990, 0.010/YR THRU 2000, 0.005/YR 9156.7 |
| 198 |
C 2010, CONSTANT INCREMENT BEYOND 2010 9156.8 |
| 199 |
C 9156.9 |
| 200 |
C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1978, 0.035/YR INCREASE 9157. |
| 201 |
C IN 1978 INCREMENT THRU 1990, 0.025/YR 9157.1 |
| 202 |
C THRU 2000, 0.015/YR THRU 2010, 0.005/YR 9157.2 |
| 203 |
C INCREASE IN INCREMENT BEYOND 2010 9157.3 |
| 204 |
C 9157.4 |
| 205 |
C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9157.5 |
| 206 |
C 0.015/YR INCREASE THRU 1990, 0.010/YR 9157.6 |
| 207 |
C INCREASE THRU 2000, 0.005/YR BEYOND 2000 9157.7 |
| 208 |
C 9157.8 |
| 209 |
C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9157.9 |
| 210 |
C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 1990, 9158. |
| 211 |
C 0.02 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 2000, 9158.1 |
| 212 |
C 0.01 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 2010, 9158.2 |
| 213 |
C CONSTANT EMISSION RATE BEYOND 2010 9158.3 |
| 214 |
C 9158.4 |
| 215 |
C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9158.5 |
| 216 |
C 9158.6 |
| 217 |
DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9158.7 |
| 218 |
DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9158.8 |
| 219 |
DATA XXF11/ 9158.9 |
| 220 |
10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9159. |
| 221 |
20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9159.1 |
| 222 |
30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9159.2 |
| 223 |
40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9159.3 |
| 224 |
50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9159.4 |
| 225 |
60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9159.5 |
| 226 |
DATA XXF12/ 9159.6 |
| 227 |
10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9159.7 |
| 228 |
20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9159.8 |
| 229 |
30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9159.9 |
| 230 |
40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9160. |
| 231 |
50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9160.1 |
| 232 |
60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9160.2 |
| 233 |
DATA XXCO2/ 9160.3 |
| 234 |
1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9160.4 |
| 235 |
2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9160.5 |
| 236 |
3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9160.6 |
| 237 |
4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9160.7 |
| 238 |
C 9160.8 |
| 239 |
DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9160.9 |
| 240 |
GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9161. |
| 241 |
C 9161.1 |
| 242 |
C CO2 SCENARIOS 9161.2 |
| 243 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9161.3 |
| 244 |
100 CONTINUE 9161.4 |
| 245 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9161.5 |
| 246 |
DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9161.6 |
| 247 |
XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9161.7 |
| 248 |
GO TO 120 9161.8 |
| 249 |
110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9161.9 |
| 250 |
I=YEAR 9162. |
| 251 |
DELTA=YEAR-I 9162.1 |
| 252 |
I=I-1957 9162.2 |
| 253 |
XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9162.3 |
| 254 |
GO TO 120 9162.4 |
| 255 |
115 XX0=343.81 9162.5 |
| 256 |
ETA=1.50 9162.6 |
| 257 |
XMU=0.015 9162.7 |
| 258 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 116 9162.8 |
| 259 |
DT=YEAR-1984.0 9162.9 |
| 260 |
GO TO 119 9163. |
| 261 |
116 DT=1990.0-1984.0 9163.1 |
| 262 |
XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9163.2 |
| 263 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9163.3 |
| 264 |
XMU=0.010 9163.4 |
| 265 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 117 9163.5 |
| 266 |
DT=YEAR-1990.0 9163.6 |
| 267 |
GO TO 119 9163.7 |
| 268 |
117 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9163.8 |
| 269 |
XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9163.9 |
| 270 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9164. |
| 271 |
XMU=0.005 9164.1 |
| 272 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 118 9164.2 |
| 273 |
DT=YEAR-2000.0 9164.3 |
| 274 |
GO TO 119 9164.4 |
| 275 |
118 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9164.5 |
| 276 |
XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9164.6 |
| 277 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9164.7 |
| 278 |
DT=YEAR-2010.0 9164.8 |
| 279 |
XX=XX0+ETA*DT 9164.9 |
| 280 |
GO TO 120 9165. |
| 281 |
119 XX=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9165.1 |
| 282 |
120 CONTINUE 9165.2 |
| 283 |
GO TO 8000 9165.3 |
| 284 |
C 9165.4 |
| 285 |
C N2O SCENARIOS 9165.5 |
| 286 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9165.6 |
| 287 |
200 XSS=282.0 9165.7 |
| 288 |
UAT=1.0/150.0 9165.8 |
| 289 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9165.9 |
| 290 |
XX0=285.355 9166. |
| 291 |
XMU=0.04 9166.1 |
| 292 |
T0=1912.0 9166.2 |
| 293 |
ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9166.3 |
| 294 |
GO TO 219 9166.4 |
| 295 |
205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9166.5 |
| 296 |
XX0=289.96 9166.6 |
| 297 |
XMU=0.01 9166.7 |
| 298 |
T0=1945.0 9166.8 |
| 299 |
ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9166.9 |
| 300 |
GO TO 219 9167. |
| 301 |
210 XX0=300.2 9167.1 |
| 302 |
XMU=0.035 9167.2 |
| 303 |
T0=1978.0 9167.3 |
| 304 |
ETA=11.0/16.7 9167.4 |
| 305 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 215 9167.5 |
| 306 |
GO TO 219 9167.6 |
| 307 |
215 DT=1990.0-T0 9167.7 |
| 308 |
XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9167.8 |
| 309 |
+ +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9167.9 |
| 310 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9168. |
| 311 |
XMU=0.025 9168.1 |
| 312 |
T0=1990.0 9168.2 |
| 313 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 216 9168.3 |
| 314 |
GO TO 219 9168.4 |
| 315 |
216 DT=2000.0-T0 9168.5 |
| 316 |
XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9168.6 |
| 317 |
+ +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9168.7 |
| 318 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9168.8 |
| 319 |
XMU=0.015 9168.9 |
| 320 |
T0=2000.0 9169. |
| 321 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 217 9169.1 |
| 322 |
GO TO 219 9169.2 |
| 323 |
217 DT=2010.0-T0 9169.3 |
| 324 |
XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9169.4 |
| 325 |
+ +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9169.5 |
| 326 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9169.6 |
| 327 |
XMU=0.005 9169.7 |
| 328 |
T0=2010.0 9169.8 |
| 329 |
219 DT=YEAR-T0 9169.9 |
| 330 |
XX=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9170. |
| 331 |
+ +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9170.1 |
| 332 |
220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9170.2 |
| 333 |
GO TO 8000 9170.3 |
| 334 |
C 9170.4 |
| 335 |
C CH4 SCENARIOS 9170.5 |
| 336 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9170.6 |
| 337 |
300 CONTINUE 9170.7 |
| 338 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9170.8 |
| 339 |
DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9170.9 |
| 340 |
XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9171. |
| 341 |
GO TO 320 9171.1 |
| 342 |
305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9171.2 |
| 343 |
DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9171.3 |
| 344 |
XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9171.4 |
| 345 |
GO TO 320 9171.5 |
| 346 |
310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9171.6 |
| 347 |
DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9171.7 |
| 348 |
XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9171.8 |
| 349 |
GO TO 320 9171.9 |
| 350 |
315 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 316 9172. |
| 351 |
DT=YEAR-1980.0 9172.1 |
| 352 |
XX=1.65*1.015**DT 9172.2 |
| 353 |
GO TO 320 9172.3 |
| 354 |
316 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 317 9172.4 |
| 355 |
DT=YEAR-1990.0 9172.5 |
| 356 |
XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**DT 9172.6 |
| 357 |
GO TO 320 9172.7 |
| 358 |
317 IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 318 9172.8 |
| 359 |
DT=YEAR-2000.0 9172.9 |
| 360 |
XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**10.0*1.005**DT 9173. |
| 361 |
GO TO 320 9173.1 |
| 362 |
318 DT=YEAR-2010.0 9173.2 |
| 363 |
XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**10.0*1.005**10.0*1.005**DT 9173.3 |
| 364 |
320 CONTINUE 9173.4 |
| 365 |
GO TO 8000 9173.5 |
| 366 |
C 9173.6 |
| 367 |
C F11 SCENARIOS 9173.7 |
| 368 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9173.8 |
| 369 |
400 XX=0.0 9173.9 |
| 370 |
IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9174. |
| 371 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1985.0) GO TO 410 9174.1 |
| 372 |
I=YEAR 9174.2 |
| 373 |
DELTA=YEAR-I 9174.3 |
| 374 |
I=I-1940 9174.4 |
| 375 |
XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9174.5 |
| 376 |
GO TO 420 9174.6 |
| 377 |
410 UAT=1.0/75.0 9174.7 |
| 378 |
XMU=0.03 9174.8 |
| 379 |
XX0=XXF11(45) 9174.9 |
| 380 |
ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9175. |
| 381 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 415 9175.1 |
| 382 |
DT=YEAR-1985.0 9175.2 |
| 383 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9175.3 |
| 384 |
GO TO 420 9175.4 |
| 385 |
415 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9175.5 |
| 386 |
XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9175.6 |
| 387 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9175.7 |
| 388 |
XMU=0.02 9175.8 |
| 389 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 416 9175.9 |
| 390 |
DT=YEAR-1990.0 9176. |
| 391 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.1 |
| 392 |
GO TO 420 9176.2 |
| 393 |
416 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9176.3 |
| 394 |
XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.4 |
| 395 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9176.5 |
| 396 |
XMU=0.01 9176.6 |
| 397 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 417 9176.7 |
| 398 |
DT=YEAR-2000.0 9176.8 |
| 399 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.9 |
| 400 |
GO TO 420 9177. |
| 401 |
417 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9177.1 |
| 402 |
XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9177.2 |
| 403 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9177.3 |
| 404 |
XMU=0.0 9177.4 |
| 405 |
DT=YEAR-2010.0 9177.5 |
| 406 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9177.6 |
| 407 |
420 XX=XX*1.0 9177.7 |
| 408 |
GO TO 8000 9177.8 |
| 409 |
C 9177.9 |
| 410 |
C F12 SCENARIOS 9178. |
| 411 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9178.1 |
| 412 |
500 XX=0.0 9178.2 |
| 413 |
IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9178.3 |
| 414 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1985.0) GO TO 510 9178.4 |
| 415 |
I=YEAR 9178.5 |
| 416 |
DELTA=YEAR-I 9178.6 |
| 417 |
I=I-1940 9178.7 |
| 418 |
XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9178.8 |
| 419 |
GO TO 520 9178.9 |
| 420 |
510 UAT=1.0/150.0 9179. |
| 421 |
XMU=0.03 9179.1 |
| 422 |
XX0=XXF12(45) 9179.2 |
| 423 |
ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9179.3 |
| 424 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 515 9179.4 |
| 425 |
DT=YEAR-1985.0 9179.5 |
| 426 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9179.6 |
| 427 |
GO TO 520 9179.7 |
| 428 |
515 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9179.8 |
| 429 |
XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9179.9 |
| 430 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9180. |
| 431 |
XMU=0.02 9180.1 |
| 432 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 516 9180.2 |
| 433 |
DT=YEAR-1990.0 9180.3 |
| 434 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9180.4 |
| 435 |
GO TO 520 9180.5 |
| 436 |
516 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9180.6 |
| 437 |
XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9180.7 |
| 438 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9180.8 |
| 439 |
XMU=0.01 9180.9 |
| 440 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 517 9181. |
| 441 |
DT=YEAR-2000.0 9181.1 |
| 442 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.2 |
| 443 |
GO TO 520 9181.3 |
| 444 |
517 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9181.4 |
| 445 |
XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.5 |
| 446 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9181.6 |
| 447 |
XMU=0.0 9181.7 |
| 448 |
DT=YEAR-2010.0 9181.8 |
| 449 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.9 |
| 450 |
520 XX=XX*1.0 9182. |
| 451 |
GO TO 8000 9182.1 |
| 452 |
C 9182.2 |
| 453 |
8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9182.3 |
| 454 |
9000 CONTINUE 9182.4 |
| 455 |
RETURN 9182.5 |
| 456 |
END 9182.6 |
| 457 |
|
| 458 |
SUBROUTINE CTREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9182.7 |
| 459 |
C 9182.8 |
| 460 |
C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9182.9 |
| 461 |
C T-GAS SCENARIO C: CURTAILED TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9183. |
| 462 |
C (EFFECTIVE FORCING CUTOFF BEYOND 2000) 9183.1 |
| 463 |
C 9183.2 |
| 464 |
C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9183.3 |
| 465 |
C 1.5PPM FIXED INCREMENTS 1984-2000 9183.4 |
| 466 |
C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9183.5 |
| 467 |
C 9183.6 |
| 468 |
C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1984, 9183.7 |
| 469 |
C FIXED INCREMENT 1984-2000, 9183.8 |
| 470 |
C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9183.9 |
| 471 |
C 9184. |
| 472 |
C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9184.1 |
| 473 |
C 0.01 INCREMENTS TO 1990, 0.005 TO 2000 9184.2 |
| 474 |
C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9184.3 |
| 475 |
C 9184.4 |
| 476 |
C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9184.5 |
| 477 |
C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 1990, 9184.6 |
| 478 |
C EMISSIONS TO ZERO DURING 1990-2000, 9184.7 |
| 479 |
C SLOW 75YR, 150YR DECAY RATE BEYOND 2000 9184.8 |
| 480 |
C 9184.9 |
| 481 |
C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9185. |
| 482 |
C 9185.1 |
| 483 |
DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9185.2 |
| 484 |
DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9185.3 |
| 485 |
DATA XXF11/ 9185.4 |
| 486 |
10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9185.5 |
| 487 |
20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9185.6 |
| 488 |
30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9185.7 |
| 489 |
40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9185.8 |
| 490 |
50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9185.9 |
| 491 |
60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9186. |
| 492 |
DATA XXF12/ 9186.1 |
| 493 |
10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9186.2 |
| 494 |
20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9186.3 |
| 495 |
30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9186.4 |
| 496 |
40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9186.5 |
| 497 |
50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9186.6 |
| 498 |
60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9186.7 |
| 499 |
DATA XXCO2/ 9186.8 |
| 500 |
1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9186.9 |
| 501 |
2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9187. |
| 502 |
3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9187.1 |
| 503 |
4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9187.2 |
| 504 |
C 9187.3 |
| 505 |
DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9187.4 |
| 506 |
GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9187.5 |
| 507 |
C 9187.6 |
| 508 |
C CO2 SCENARIOS 9187.7 |
| 509 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9187.8 |
| 510 |
100 CONTINUE 9187.9 |
| 511 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9188. |
| 512 |
DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9188.1 |
| 513 |
XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9188.2 |
| 514 |
GO TO 120 9188.3 |
| 515 |
110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9188.4 |
| 516 |
I=YEAR 9188.5 |
| 517 |
DELTA=YEAR-I 9188.6 |
| 518 |
I=I-1957 9188.7 |
| 519 |
XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9188.8 |
| 520 |
GO TO 120 9188.9 |
| 521 |
115 XX0=343.81 9189. |
| 522 |
ETA=1.50 9189.1 |
| 523 |
XMU=0.0 9189.2 |
| 524 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 116 9189.3 |
| 525 |
DT=YEAR-1984.0 9189.4 |
| 526 |
GO TO 119 9189.5 |
| 527 |
116 DT=2000.0-1984.0 9189.6 |
| 528 |
XX0=XX0+ETA*DT 9189.7 |
| 529 |
DT=0.0 9189.8 |
| 530 |
119 XX=XX0+ETA*DT 9189.9 |
| 531 |
120 CONTINUE 9190. |
| 532 |
GO TO 8000 9190.1 |
| 533 |
C 9190.2 |
| 534 |
C N2O SCENARIOS 9190.3 |
| 535 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9190.4 |
| 536 |
200 XSS=282.0 9190.5 |
| 537 |
UAT=1.0/150.0 9190.6 |
| 538 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9190.7 |
| 539 |
XX0=285.355 9190.8 |
| 540 |
XMU=0.04 9190.9 |
| 541 |
T0=1912.0 9191. |
| 542 |
ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9191.1 |
| 543 |
GO TO 219 9191.2 |
| 544 |
205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9191.3 |
| 545 |
XX0=289.96 9191.4 |
| 546 |
XMU=0.01 9191.5 |
| 547 |
T0=1945.0 9191.6 |
| 548 |
ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9191.7 |
| 549 |
GO TO 219 9191.8 |
| 550 |
210 XX0=300.2 9191.9 |
| 551 |
XMU=0.035 9192. |
| 552 |
T0=1978.0 9192.1 |
| 553 |
ETA=11.0/16.7 9192.2 |
| 554 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 215 9192.3 |
| 555 |
GO TO 219 9192.4 |
| 556 |
215 DT=1984.0-T0 9192.5 |
| 557 |
XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9192.6 |
| 558 |
+ +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9192.7 |
| 559 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9192.8 |
| 560 |
XMU=0.0 9192.9 |
| 561 |
T0=1984.0 9193. |
| 562 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 216 9193.1 |
| 563 |
GO TO 219 9193.2 |
| 564 |
216 DT=2000.0-T0 9193.3 |
| 565 |
XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9193.4 |
| 566 |
+ +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9193.5 |
| 567 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9193.6 |
| 568 |
T0=YEAR 9193.7 |
| 569 |
219 DT=YEAR-T0 9193.8 |
| 570 |
XX=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9193.9 |
| 571 |
+ +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9194. |
| 572 |
220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9194.1 |
| 573 |
GO TO 8000 9194.2 |
| 574 |
C 9194.3 |
| 575 |
C CH4 SCENARIOS 9194.4 |
| 576 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9194.5 |
| 577 |
300 CONTINUE 9194.6 |
| 578 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9194.7 |
| 579 |
DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9194.8 |
| 580 |
XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9194.9 |
| 581 |
GO TO 320 9195. |
| 582 |
305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9195.1 |
| 583 |
DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9195.2 |
| 584 |
XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9195.3 |
| 585 |
GO TO 320 9195.4 |
| 586 |
310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9195.5 |
| 587 |
DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9195.6 |
| 588 |
XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9195.7 |
| 589 |
GO TO 320 9195.8 |
| 590 |
315 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 316 9195.9 |
| 591 |
DT=YEAR-1980.0 9196. |
| 592 |
XX=1.65*1.010**DT 9196.1 |
| 593 |
GO TO 320 9196.2 |
| 594 |
316 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 317 9196.3 |
| 595 |
DT=YEAR-1990.0 9196.4 |
| 596 |
XX=1.65*1.010**10.0*1.005**DT 9196.5 |
| 597 |
GO TO 320 9196.6 |
| 598 |
317 DT=YEAR-2000.0 9196.7 |
| 599 |
XX=1.65*1.010**10.0*1.005**10.0 9196.8 |
| 600 |
320 CONTINUE 9196.9 |
| 601 |
GO TO 8000 9197. |
| 602 |
C 9197.1 |
| 603 |
C F11 SCENARIOS 9197.2 |
| 604 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9197.3 |
| 605 |
400 XX=0.0 9197.4 |
| 606 |
IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9197.5 |
| 607 |
IF(YEAR.GE.1985.0) GO TO 410 9197.6 |
| 608 |
I=YEAR 9197.7 |
| 609 |
DELTA=YEAR-I 9197.8 |
| 610 |
I=I-1940 9197.9 |
| 611 |
XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9198. |
| 612 |
GO TO 420 9198.1 |
| 613 |
410 UAT=1.0/75.0 9198.2 |
| 614 |
TAU=75.0 9198.3 |
| 615 |
XMU=0.03 9198.4 |
| 616 |
XX0=XXF11(45) 9198.5 |
| 617 |
ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9198.6 |
| 618 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 415 9198.7 |
| 619 |
DT=YEAR-1985.0 9198.8 |
| 620 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9198.9 |
| 621 |
GO TO 420 9199. |
| 622 |
415 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9199.1 |
| 623 |
XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9199.2 |
| 624 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9199.3 |
| 625 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 416 9199.4 |
| 626 |
DT=YEAR-1990.0 9199.5 |
| 627 |
TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9199.6 |
| 628 |
XX=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9199.7 |
| 629 |
GO TO 420 9199.8 |
| 630 |
416 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9199.9 |
| 631 |
TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9200. |
| 632 |
XX0=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9200.1 |
| 633 |
DT=YEAR-2000.0 9200.2 |
| 634 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT) 9200.3 |
| 635 |
420 XX=XX*1.0 9200.4 |
| 636 |
GO TO 8000 9200.5 |
| 637 |
C 9200.6 |
| 638 |
C F12 SCENARIOS 9200.7 |
| 639 |
C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9200.8 |
| 640 |
500 XX=0.0 9200.9 |
| 641 |
IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9201. |
| 642 |
IF(YEAR.GE.1985.0) GO TO 510 9201.1 |
| 643 |
I=YEAR 9201.2 |
| 644 |
DELTA=YEAR-I 9201.3 |
| 645 |
I=I-1940 9201.4 |
| 646 |
XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9201.5 |
| 647 |
GO TO 520 9201.6 |
| 648 |
510 UAT=1.0/150.0 9201.7 |
| 649 |
TAU=150.0 9201.8 |
| 650 |
XMU=0.03 9201.9 |
| 651 |
XX0=XXF12(45) 9202. |
| 652 |
ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9202.1 |
| 653 |
IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 515 9202.2 |
| 654 |
DT=YEAR-1985.0 9202.3 |
| 655 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9202.4 |
| 656 |
GO TO 520 9202.5 |
| 657 |
515 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9202.6 |
| 658 |
XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9202.7 |
| 659 |
ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9202.8 |
| 660 |
IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 516 9202.9 |
| 661 |
DT=YEAR-1990.0 9203. |
| 662 |
TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9203.1 |
| 663 |
XX=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9203.2 |
| 664 |
GO TO 520 9203.3 |
| 665 |
516 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9203.4 |
| 666 |
TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9203.5 |
| 667 |
XX0=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9203.6 |
| 668 |
DT=YEAR-2000.0 9203.7 |
| 669 |
XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT) 9203.8 |
| 670 |
520 XX=XX*1.0 9203.9 |
| 671 |
GO TO 8000 9204. |
| 672 |
C 9204.1 |
| 673 |
8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9204.2 |
| 674 |
9000 CONTINUE 9204.3 |
| 675 |
RETURN 9204.4 |
| 676 |
END 9204.5 |
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