/[MITgcm]/MITgcm_contrib/jscott/igsm/src/trends_giss.F
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Revision 1.1 - (hide annotations) (download)
Fri Aug 11 19:35:33 2006 UTC (18 years, 11 months ago) by jscott
Branch: MAIN
CVS Tags: HEAD
atm2d package

1 jscott 1.1
2     #include "ctrparam.h"
3    
4     ! ==========================================================
5     !
6     ! TRENDS.F: This file contains subroitines a, b, & ctrend
7     ! in the old MD2G04.f.
8     !
9     ! ----------------------------------------------------------
10     !
11     ! Revision History:
12     !
13     ! When Who What
14     ! ---- ---------- -------
15     ! 073100 Chien Wang repack based on CliChem3 & M24x11,
16     ! and add cpp.
17     !
18     ! ==========================================================
19    
20    
21     SUBROUTINE ATREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9139.1
22     C 9139.2
23     C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9139.3
24     C T-GAS SCENARIO A: PRESENT TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9139.4
25     C (EXPONENTIAL FORCING PROJECTED BEYOND 2000) 9139.5
26     C 9139.6
27     C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9139.7
28     C 0.015/YR RATE OF INCREASE 9139.8
29     C ON 1.5 PPM INCREMENT BEYOND 1984 9139.9
30     C 9140.
31     C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1978, 9140.1
32     C 0.035/YR INCREASE 9140.2
33     C ON 1978 INCREMENT BEYOND 1978 9140.3
34     C 9140.4
35     C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9140.5
36     C 0.015/YR INCREASE BEYOND 1980 9140.6
37     C 9140.7
38     C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9140.8
39     C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE BEYOND 1984, 9140.9
40     C DOUBLED FORCING TO ACCOUNT FOR OTHER CFCS 9141.
41     C SLOW 75YR, 150YR DECAY RATE BEYOND 2000 9141.1
42     C 9141.2
43     C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9141.3
44     C 9141.4
45     DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9141.5
46     DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9141.6
47     DATA XXF11/ 9141.7
48     10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9141.8
49     20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9141.9
50     30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9142.
51     40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9142.1
52     50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9142.2
53     60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9142.3
54     DATA XXF12/ 9142.4
55     10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9142.5
56     20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9142.6
57     30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9142.7
58     40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9142.8
59     50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9142.9
60     60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9143.
61     DATA XXCO2/ 9143.1
62     1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9143.2
63     2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9143.3
64     3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9143.4
65     4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9143.5
66     C 9143.6
67     DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9143.7
68     GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9143.8
69     C 9143.9
70     C CO2 SCENARIOS 9144.
71     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9144.1
72     100 CONTINUE 9144.2
73     IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9144.3
74     DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9144.4
75     XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9144.5
76     GO TO 120 9144.6
77     110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9144.7
78     I=YEAR 9144.8
79     DELTA=YEAR-I 9144.9
80     I=I-1957 9145.
81     XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9145.1
82     GO TO 120 9145.2
83     115 DT=YEAR-1984.0 9145.3
84     XX0=343.81 9145.4
85     ETA=1.50 9145.5
86     XMU=0.015 9145.6
87     XX=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9145.7
88     120 CONTINUE 9145.8
89     GO TO 8000 9145.9
90     C 9146.
91     C N2O SCENARIOS 9146.1
92     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9146.2
93     200 XSS=282.0 9146.3
94     TAU=150.0 9146.4
95     BNA=16.7 9146.5
96     IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9146.6
97     X0=285.355 9146.7
98     XMU=0.04 9146.8
99     T0=1912.0 9146.9
100     XJ0=11.0*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9147.
101     GO TO 219 9147.1
102     205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9147.2
103     X0=289.96 9147.3
104     XMU=0.01 9147.4
105     T0=1945.0 9147.5
106     XJ0=11.0*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9147.6
107     GO TO 219 9147.7
108     210 IF(YEAR.GT.1978.0) GO TO 215 9147.8
109     X0=300.2 9147.9
110     XMU=0.035 9148.
111     T0=1978.0 9148.1
112     XJ0=11.0 9148.2
113     GO TO 219 9148.3
114     215 CONTINUE 9148.4
115     X0=300.2 9148.5
116     XMU=0.035 9148.6
117     T0=1978.0 9148.7
118     XJ0=11.0 9148.8
119     219 DT=YEAR-T0 9148.9
120     XX=XSS+(X0-XSS)*EXP(-DT/TAU) 9149.
121     + +XJ0*TAU/BNA/(1.0+XMU*TAU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT/TAU)) 9149.1
122     220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9149.2
123     GO TO 8000 9149.3
124     C 9149.4
125     C CH4 SCENARIOS 9149.5
126     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9149.6
127     300 CONTINUE 9149.7
128     IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9149.8
129     DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/108.0 9149.9
130     XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9150.
131     GO TO 320 9150.1
132     305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9150.2
133     DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9150.3
134     XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9150.4
135     GO TO 320 9150.5
136     310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9150.6
137     DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9150.7
138     XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9150.8
139     GO TO 320 9150.9
140     315 DT=YEAR-1980.0 9151.
141     XX=1.65*1.015**DT 9151.1
142     320 CONTINUE 9151.2
143     GO TO 8000 9151.3
144     C 9151.4
145     C F11 SCENARIOS 9151.5
146     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9151.6
147     400 CONTINUE 9151.7
148     IF(YEAR.LT.1985.0) GO TO 410 9151.8
149     UAT=1.0/75.0 9151.9
150     XMU=0.03 9152.
151     XX0=XXF11(45) 9152.1
152     ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9152.2
153     DT=YEAR-1985.0 9152.3
154     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9152.4
155     GO TO 420 9152.5
156     410 XX=0.0 9152.6
157     IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9152.7
158     I=YEAR 9152.8
159     DELTA=YEAR-I 9152.9
160     I=I-1940 9153.
161     XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9153.1
162     420 XX=XX*2.0 9153.2
163     GO TO 8000 9153.3
164     C 9153.4
165     C F12 SCENARIOS 9153.5
166     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9153.6
167     500 CONTINUE 9153.7
168     IF(YEAR.LT.1985.0) GO TO 510 9153.8
169     UAT=1.0/150.0 9153.9
170     XMU=0.03 9154.
171     XX0=XXF12(45) 9154.1
172     ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9154.2
173     DT=YEAR-1985.0 9154.3
174     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9154.4
175     GO TO 520 9154.5
176     510 XX=0.0 9154.6
177     IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9154.7
178     I=YEAR 9154.8
179     DELTA=YEAR-I 9154.9
180     I=I-1940 9155.
181     XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9155.1
182     520 XX=XX*2.0 9155.2
183     GO TO 8000 9155.3
184     C 9155.4
185     8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9155.5
186     9000 CONTINUE 9155.6
187     RETURN 9155.7
188     END 9155.8
189     SUBROUTINE BTREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9155.9
190     C 9156.
191     C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9156.1
192     C T-GAS SCENARIO B: REDUCED TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9156.2
193     C (REDUCED FORCING BEYOND 2000) 9156.3
194     C 9156.4
195     C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9156.5
196     C 0.015/YR INCREASE IN 1.5 PPM INCREMENT 9156.6
197     C THRU 1990, 0.010/YR THRU 2000, 0.005/YR 9156.7
198     C 2010, CONSTANT INCREMENT BEYOND 2010 9156.8
199     C 9156.9
200     C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1978, 0.035/YR INCREASE 9157.
201     C IN 1978 INCREMENT THRU 1990, 0.025/YR 9157.1
202     C THRU 2000, 0.015/YR THRU 2010, 0.005/YR 9157.2
203     C INCREASE IN INCREMENT BEYOND 2010 9157.3
204     C 9157.4
205     C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9157.5
206     C 0.015/YR INCREASE THRU 1990, 0.010/YR 9157.6
207     C INCREASE THRU 2000, 0.005/YR BEYOND 2000 9157.7
208     C 9157.8
209     C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9157.9
210     C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 1990, 9158.
211     C 0.02 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 2000, 9158.1
212     C 0.01 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 2010, 9158.2
213     C CONSTANT EMISSION RATE BEYOND 2010 9158.3
214     C 9158.4
215     C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9158.5
216     C 9158.6
217     DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9158.7
218     DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9158.8
219     DATA XXF11/ 9158.9
220     10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9159.
221     20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9159.1
222     30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9159.2
223     40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9159.3
224     50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9159.4
225     60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9159.5
226     DATA XXF12/ 9159.6
227     10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9159.7
228     20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9159.8
229     30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9159.9
230     40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9160.
231     50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9160.1
232     60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9160.2
233     DATA XXCO2/ 9160.3
234     1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9160.4
235     2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9160.5
236     3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9160.6
237     4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9160.7
238     C 9160.8
239     DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9160.9
240     GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9161.
241     C 9161.1
242     C CO2 SCENARIOS 9161.2
243     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9161.3
244     100 CONTINUE 9161.4
245     IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9161.5
246     DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9161.6
247     XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9161.7
248     GO TO 120 9161.8
249     110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9161.9
250     I=YEAR 9162.
251     DELTA=YEAR-I 9162.1
252     I=I-1957 9162.2
253     XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9162.3
254     GO TO 120 9162.4
255     115 XX0=343.81 9162.5
256     ETA=1.50 9162.6
257     XMU=0.015 9162.7
258     IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 116 9162.8
259     DT=YEAR-1984.0 9162.9
260     GO TO 119 9163.
261     116 DT=1990.0-1984.0 9163.1
262     XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9163.2
263     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9163.3
264     XMU=0.010 9163.4
265     IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 117 9163.5
266     DT=YEAR-1990.0 9163.6
267     GO TO 119 9163.7
268     117 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9163.8
269     XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9163.9
270     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9164.
271     XMU=0.005 9164.1
272     IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 118 9164.2
273     DT=YEAR-2000.0 9164.3
274     GO TO 119 9164.4
275     118 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9164.5
276     XX0=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9164.6
277     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9164.7
278     DT=YEAR-2010.0 9164.8
279     XX=XX0+ETA*DT 9164.9
280     GO TO 120 9165.
281     119 XX=XX0+ETA*(EXP(XMU*DT)-1.0)/XMU 9165.1
282     120 CONTINUE 9165.2
283     GO TO 8000 9165.3
284     C 9165.4
285     C N2O SCENARIOS 9165.5
286     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9165.6
287     200 XSS=282.0 9165.7
288     UAT=1.0/150.0 9165.8
289     IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9165.9
290     XX0=285.355 9166.
291     XMU=0.04 9166.1
292     T0=1912.0 9166.2
293     ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9166.3
294     GO TO 219 9166.4
295     205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9166.5
296     XX0=289.96 9166.6
297     XMU=0.01 9166.7
298     T0=1945.0 9166.8
299     ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9166.9
300     GO TO 219 9167.
301     210 XX0=300.2 9167.1
302     XMU=0.035 9167.2
303     T0=1978.0 9167.3
304     ETA=11.0/16.7 9167.4
305     IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 215 9167.5
306     GO TO 219 9167.6
307     215 DT=1990.0-T0 9167.7
308     XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9167.8
309     + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9167.9
310     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9168.
311     XMU=0.025 9168.1
312     T0=1990.0 9168.2
313     IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 216 9168.3
314     GO TO 219 9168.4
315     216 DT=2000.0-T0 9168.5
316     XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9168.6
317     + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9168.7
318     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9168.8
319     XMU=0.015 9168.9
320     T0=2000.0 9169.
321     IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 217 9169.1
322     GO TO 219 9169.2
323     217 DT=2010.0-T0 9169.3
324     XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9169.4
325     + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9169.5
326     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9169.6
327     XMU=0.005 9169.7
328     T0=2010.0 9169.8
329     219 DT=YEAR-T0 9169.9
330     XX=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9170.
331     + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9170.1
332     220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9170.2
333     GO TO 8000 9170.3
334     C 9170.4
335     C CH4 SCENARIOS 9170.5
336     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9170.6
337     300 CONTINUE 9170.7
338     IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9170.8
339     DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9170.9
340     XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9171.
341     GO TO 320 9171.1
342     305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9171.2
343     DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9171.3
344     XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9171.4
345     GO TO 320 9171.5
346     310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9171.6
347     DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9171.7
348     XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9171.8
349     GO TO 320 9171.9
350     315 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 316 9172.
351     DT=YEAR-1980.0 9172.1
352     XX=1.65*1.015**DT 9172.2
353     GO TO 320 9172.3
354     316 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 317 9172.4
355     DT=YEAR-1990.0 9172.5
356     XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**DT 9172.6
357     GO TO 320 9172.7
358     317 IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 318 9172.8
359     DT=YEAR-2000.0 9172.9
360     XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**10.0*1.005**DT 9173.
361     GO TO 320 9173.1
362     318 DT=YEAR-2010.0 9173.2
363     XX=1.65*1.015**10.0*1.010**10.0*1.005**10.0*1.005**DT 9173.3
364     320 CONTINUE 9173.4
365     GO TO 8000 9173.5
366     C 9173.6
367     C F11 SCENARIOS 9173.7
368     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9173.8
369     400 XX=0.0 9173.9
370     IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9174.
371     IF(YEAR.GT.1985.0) GO TO 410 9174.1
372     I=YEAR 9174.2
373     DELTA=YEAR-I 9174.3
374     I=I-1940 9174.4
375     XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9174.5
376     GO TO 420 9174.6
377     410 UAT=1.0/75.0 9174.7
378     XMU=0.03 9174.8
379     XX0=XXF11(45) 9174.9
380     ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9175.
381     IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 415 9175.1
382     DT=YEAR-1985.0 9175.2
383     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9175.3
384     GO TO 420 9175.4
385     415 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9175.5
386     XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9175.6
387     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9175.7
388     XMU=0.02 9175.8
389     IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 416 9175.9
390     DT=YEAR-1990.0 9176.
391     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.1
392     GO TO 420 9176.2
393     416 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9176.3
394     XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.4
395     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9176.5
396     XMU=0.01 9176.6
397     IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 417 9176.7
398     DT=YEAR-2000.0 9176.8
399     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9176.9
400     GO TO 420 9177.
401     417 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9177.1
402     XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9177.2
403     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9177.3
404     XMU=0.0 9177.4
405     DT=YEAR-2010.0 9177.5
406     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9177.6
407     420 XX=XX*1.0 9177.7
408     GO TO 8000 9177.8
409     C 9177.9
410     C F12 SCENARIOS 9178.
411     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9178.1
412     500 XX=0.0 9178.2
413     IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9178.3
414     IF(YEAR.GT.1985.0) GO TO 510 9178.4
415     I=YEAR 9178.5
416     DELTA=YEAR-I 9178.6
417     I=I-1940 9178.7
418     XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9178.8
419     GO TO 520 9178.9
420     510 UAT=1.0/150.0 9179.
421     XMU=0.03 9179.1
422     XX0=XXF12(45) 9179.2
423     ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9179.3
424     IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 515 9179.4
425     DT=YEAR-1985.0 9179.5
426     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9179.6
427     GO TO 520 9179.7
428     515 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9179.8
429     XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9179.9
430     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9180.
431     XMU=0.02 9180.1
432     IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 516 9180.2
433     DT=YEAR-1990.0 9180.3
434     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9180.4
435     GO TO 520 9180.5
436     516 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9180.6
437     XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9180.7
438     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9180.8
439     XMU=0.01 9180.9
440     IF(YEAR.GT.2010.0) GO TO 517 9181.
441     DT=YEAR-2000.0 9181.1
442     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.2
443     GO TO 520 9181.3
444     517 DT=2010.0-2000.0 9181.4
445     XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.5
446     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9181.6
447     XMU=0.0 9181.7
448     DT=YEAR-2010.0 9181.8
449     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9181.9
450     520 XX=XX*1.0 9182.
451     GO TO 8000 9182.1
452     C 9182.2
453     8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9182.3
454     9000 CONTINUE 9182.4
455     RETURN 9182.5
456     END 9182.6
457    
458     SUBROUTINE CTREND(XGAS,YEAR,NGAS) 9182.7
459     C 9182.8
460     C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9182.9
461     C T-GAS SCENARIO C: CURTAILED TREND FOR TRACE GAS INCREASES 9183.
462     C (EFFECTIVE FORCING CUTOFF BEYOND 2000) 9183.1
463     C 9183.2
464     C CO2: OBSERVED TREND 1958-1984, 9183.3
465     C 1.5PPM FIXED INCREMENTS 1984-2000 9183.4
466     C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9183.5
467     C 9183.6
468     C N2O: WEISS FORMULA THRU 1984, 9183.7
469     C FIXED INCREMENT 1984-2000, 9183.8
470     C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9183.9
471     C 9184.
472     C CH4: OBSERVED RATES THRU 1980, 9184.1
473     C 0.01 INCREMENTS TO 1990, 0.005 TO 2000 9184.2
474     C FIXED CONCENTRATION BEYOND 2000 9184.3
475     C 9184.4
476     C CFC: OBSERVED CONCENTRATION THRU 1984, 9184.5
477     C 0.03 EMISSION RATE INCREASE TO 1990, 9184.6
478     C EMISSIONS TO ZERO DURING 1990-2000, 9184.7
479     C SLOW 75YR, 150YR DECAY RATE BEYOND 2000 9184.8
480     C 9184.9
481     C-----------------------------------------------------------------------9185.
482     C 9185.1
483     DIMENSION XGAS(1) 9185.2
484     DIMENSION XXF11(45),XXF12(45),XXCO2(27) 9185.3
485     DATA XXF11/ 9185.4
486     10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00004,0.00010,0.00023, 9185.5
487     20.00041,0.00066,0.00100,0.00148,0.00215,0.00297,0.00397,0.00523, 9185.6
488     30.00662,0.00791,0.00921,0.01093,0.01316,0.01596,0.01939,0.02345, 9185.7
489     40.02807,0.03321,0.03904,0.04569,0.05343,0.06224,0.07186,0.08267, 9185.8
490     50.09505,0.10867,0.12174,0.13422,0.14665,0.15820,0.16871,0.17841, 9185.9
491     60.18919,0.19983,0.21032,0.22068,0.23090/ 9186.
492     DATA XXF12/ 9186.1
493     10.00001,0.00001,0.00001,0.00040,0.00112,0.00198,0.00298,0.00411, 9186.2
494     20.00539,0.00679,0.00836,0.00998,0.01181,0.01387,0.01619,0.01888, 9186.3
495     30.02195,0.02513,0.02868,0.03292,0.03766,0.04312,0.04954,0.05702, 9186.4
496     40.06546,0.07485,0.08545,0.09756,0.11130,0.12634,0.14250,0.16011, 9186.5
497     50.17962,0.20082,0.22144,0.24105,0.25951,0.27630,0.29247,0.30831, 9186.6
498     60.32585,0.34328,0.36059,0.37778,0.39486/ 9186.7
499     DATA XXCO2/ 9186.8
500     1 315.00, 315.69, 316.66, 317.27, 318.24, 318.93, 319.33, 319.95, 9186.9
501     2 320.80, 321.44, 322.25, 323.44, 324.82, 326.01, 326.97, 328.86, 9187.
502     3 330.35, 330.71, 331.69, 332.83, 334.58, 335.95, 337.65, 339.04, 9187.1
503     4 340.01, 341.56, 343.81/ 9187.2
504     C 9187.3
505     DO 9000 N=1,NGAS 9187.4
506     GO TO (100,200,300,400,500),N 9187.5
507     C 9187.6
508     C CO2 SCENARIOS 9187.7
509     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9187.8
510     100 CONTINUE 9187.9
511     IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 110 9188.
512     DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9188.1
513     XX=270.0*(315.0/270.0)**DT 9188.2
514     GO TO 120 9188.3
515     110 IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 115 9188.4
516     I=YEAR 9188.5
517     DELTA=YEAR-I 9188.6
518     I=I-1957 9188.7
519     XX=XXCO2(I)+DELTA*(XXCO2(I+1)-XXCO2(I)) 9188.8
520     GO TO 120 9188.9
521     115 XX0=343.81 9189.
522     ETA=1.50 9189.1
523     XMU=0.0 9189.2
524     IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 116 9189.3
525     DT=YEAR-1984.0 9189.4
526     GO TO 119 9189.5
527     116 DT=2000.0-1984.0 9189.6
528     XX0=XX0+ETA*DT 9189.7
529     DT=0.0 9189.8
530     119 XX=XX0+ETA*DT 9189.9
531     120 CONTINUE 9190.
532     GO TO 8000 9190.1
533     C 9190.2
534     C N2O SCENARIOS 9190.3
535     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9190.4
536     200 XSS=282.0 9190.5
537     UAT=1.0/150.0 9190.6
538     IF(YEAR.GT.1912.0) GO TO 205 9190.7
539     XX0=285.355 9190.8
540     XMU=0.04 9190.9
541     T0=1912.0 9191.
542     ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.01*33.0-0.035*33.0) 9191.1
543     GO TO 219 9191.2
544     205 IF(YEAR.GT.1945.0) GO TO 210 9191.3
545     XX0=289.96 9191.4
546     XMU=0.01 9191.5
547     T0=1945.0 9191.6
548     ETA=11.0/16.7*EXP(-0.035*33.0) 9191.7
549     GO TO 219 9191.8
550     210 XX0=300.2 9191.9
551     XMU=0.035 9192.
552     T0=1978.0 9192.1
553     ETA=11.0/16.7 9192.2
554     IF(YEAR.GT.1984.0) GO TO 215 9192.3
555     GO TO 219 9192.4
556     215 DT=1984.0-T0 9192.5
557     XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9192.6
558     + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9192.7
559     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9192.8
560     XMU=0.0 9192.9
561     T0=1984.0 9193.
562     IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 216 9193.1
563     GO TO 219 9193.2
564     216 DT=2000.0-T0 9193.3
565     XX0=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9193.4
566     + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9193.5
567     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9193.6
568     T0=YEAR 9193.7
569     219 DT=YEAR-T0 9193.8
570     XX=XSS+(XX0-XSS)*EXP(-DT*UAT) 9193.9
571     + +ETA/(XMU+UAT)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-DT*UAT)) 9194.
572     220 XX=XX*1.E-03 9194.1
573     GO TO 8000 9194.2
574     C 9194.3
575     C CH4 SCENARIOS 9194.4
576     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9194.5
577     300 CONTINUE 9194.6
578     IF(YEAR.GT.1958.0) GO TO 305 9194.7
579     DT=(YEAR-1850.0)/(1958.0-1850.0) 9194.8
580     XX=1.00*(1.40/1.00)**DT 9194.9
581     GO TO 320 9195.
582     305 IF(YEAR.GT.1970.0) GO TO 310 9195.1
583     DT=(YEAR-1958.0)/12.0 9195.2
584     XX=1.40*(1.50/1.40)**DT 9195.3
585     GO TO 320 9195.4
586     310 IF(YEAR.GT.1980.0) GO TO 315 9195.5
587     DT=(YEAR-1970.0)/10.0 9195.6
588     XX=1.50*(1.65/1.50)**DT 9195.7
589     GO TO 320 9195.8
590     315 IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 316 9195.9
591     DT=YEAR-1980.0 9196.
592     XX=1.65*1.010**DT 9196.1
593     GO TO 320 9196.2
594     316 IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 317 9196.3
595     DT=YEAR-1990.0 9196.4
596     XX=1.65*1.010**10.0*1.005**DT 9196.5
597     GO TO 320 9196.6
598     317 DT=YEAR-2000.0 9196.7
599     XX=1.65*1.010**10.0*1.005**10.0 9196.8
600     320 CONTINUE 9196.9
601     GO TO 8000 9197.
602     C 9197.1
603     C F11 SCENARIOS 9197.2
604     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9197.3
605     400 XX=0.0 9197.4
606     IF(YEAR.LT.1945.0) GO TO 420 9197.5
607     IF(YEAR.GE.1985.0) GO TO 410 9197.6
608     I=YEAR 9197.7
609     DELTA=YEAR-I 9197.8
610     I=I-1940 9197.9
611     XX=XXF11(I)+DELTA*(XXF11(I+1)-XXF11(I)) 9198.
612     GO TO 420 9198.1
613     410 UAT=1.0/75.0 9198.2
614     TAU=75.0 9198.3
615     XMU=0.03 9198.4
616     XX0=XXF11(45) 9198.5
617     ETA=XXF11(45)-XXF11(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9198.6
618     IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 415 9198.7
619     DT=YEAR-1985.0 9198.8
620     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9198.9
621     GO TO 420 9199.
622     415 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9199.1
623     XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9199.2
624     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9199.3
625     IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 416 9199.4
626     DT=YEAR-1990.0 9199.5
627     TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9199.6
628     XX=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9199.7
629     GO TO 420 9199.8
630     416 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9199.9
631     TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9200.
632     XX0=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9200.1
633     DT=YEAR-2000.0 9200.2
634     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT) 9200.3
635     420 XX=XX*1.0 9200.4
636     GO TO 8000 9200.5
637     C 9200.6
638     C F12 SCENARIOS 9200.7
639     C------------------------------------------------------------------- 9200.8
640     500 XX=0.0 9200.9
641     IF(YEAR.LT.1943.0) GO TO 520 9201.
642     IF(YEAR.GE.1985.0) GO TO 510 9201.1
643     I=YEAR 9201.2
644     DELTA=YEAR-I 9201.3
645     I=I-1940 9201.4
646     XX=XXF12(I)+DELTA*(XXF12(I+1)-XXF12(I)) 9201.5
647     GO TO 520 9201.6
648     510 UAT=1.0/150.0 9201.7
649     TAU=150.0 9201.8
650     XMU=0.03 9201.9
651     XX0=XXF12(45) 9202.
652     ETA=XXF12(45)-XXF12(44)*EXP(-UAT) 9202.1
653     IF(YEAR.GT.1990.0) GO TO 515 9202.2
654     DT=YEAR-1985.0 9202.3
655     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9202.4
656     GO TO 520 9202.5
657     515 DT=1990.0-1985.0 9202.6
658     XX0=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT)+ETA/(UAT+XMU)*(EXP(XMU*DT)-EXP(-UAT*DT)) 9202.7
659     ETA=ETA*EXP(XMU*DT) 9202.8
660     IF(YEAR.GT.2000.0) GO TO 516 9202.9
661     DT=YEAR-1990.0 9203.
662     TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9203.1
663     XX=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9203.2
664     GO TO 520 9203.3
665     516 DT=2000.0-1990.0 9203.4
666     TAUETA=TAU*ETA+TAU*TAU*ETA/10.0 9203.5
667     XX0=(XX0-TAUETA)*EXP(-UAT*DT)+TAUETA-TAU*ETA/10.0*DT 9203.6
668     DT=YEAR-2000.0 9203.7
669     XX=XX0*EXP(-UAT*DT) 9203.8
670     520 XX=XX*1.0 9203.9
671     GO TO 8000 9204.
672     C 9204.1
673     8000 XGAS(N)=XX 9204.2
674     9000 CONTINUE 9204.3
675     RETURN 9204.4
676     END 9204.5

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